In this week's NEWSWEEK, Stumper goes analog to look at the generational tension at the heart of the Democratic race. A sneak preview:

Ah, the folly of youth. On Sept. 24, 2007, I pitched a story to my boss at NEWSWEEK about "Barack Obama and young voters—specifically, whether they can actually help him win the nomination or whether they'll just stay home, you know, watching MTV and eating Doritos as they have in the past." With Obama trailing Hillary Clinton by 10 points in Iowa, his campaign manager, David Plouffe, had just told reporters that youngsters were "Barack's core support—in effect, his hidden vote." I'm 25; my editor is 31. "I like this a lot," he replied. "Proceed, my friend."

A week later, after interviewing campaign staffers and independent observers, I sent him a profile of Obama's nimble Iowa youth program. Haunted by the specter of Howard Dean, whose hordes of orange-hatted out-of-state volunteers failed to fulfill the Vermonter's youthful potential in 2004, Team Obama had already hired four times as many staffers and invested five times as much money in the state, opening an unprecedented 31 offices and launching a novel "BarackStars" program to target the 40,000 untapped 17-year-olds set to turn 18 before Election Day. Rob Sand, a 25-year-old former Deaniac, admitted that he'd skipped the 2004 caucuses. But this time was different. "I'm more excited about Obama than I was about Dean," he said. "Dean was polarizing. Obama brings people together." Although counting on kids to carry the caucuses was "a tall order," I wrote, "the potential, at least, is there."

My boss liked the story—but his boss, a 43-year-old former Washington bureau chief, was skeptical. He'd heard the spiel before. Gene McCarthy. Gary Hart. Bill Bradley. Dean. "If young voters show up and Obama wins Iowa," he said, smiling as he slumped on an office sofa, "it's a big steak dinner for you guys. And I'm buying." My editor nixed "The Audacity of Youth" that night.

Exactly three months later, I arrived at the apartment of Paul Tewes, Obama's Iowa state director, as the icy streets of downtown Des Moines filled with young Obamaniacs hugging and cheering, "We did it!" Upstairs, scruffy postcollegiate staffers squeezed between couches and credenzas to celebrate the senator's surprise victory. Cans of Bud Light covered every surface. Youth turnout was up 135 percent from 2004, and the under-25 set alone gave Obama 17,000 votes, a 26-year-old speechwriter told me. Obama's margin of victory? Twenty thousand. "We did it" was right.

Rob Sand e-mailed the next morning. "This," he wrote, "is our next president."

Born in the 1980s, Sand and the supporters chugging Bud that night are what generational theorists call "millennials." (Full disclosure: I'm one, too. Further disclosure: I'm also a registered independent.) Now, a month after Iowa, my boss's boss is well aware that millions of my peers have fallen under the spell of the freshman senator from Illinois. At this point, the statistics seem almost stale: with youth turnout doubling, tripling and even quadrupling in the 30 contests to date, Obama won the 18-to-29 demographic by 4-1 in Iowa, 3-1 in New Hampshire, 3-1 in South Carolina and 2-1 in Nevada, and he trounced Clinton, often by as much as 50 percent among young voters, in 10 of the 13 Super Tuesday states with available data.

Read the rest of the story here.

Slideshow: Stumper on the Road
 

Here's Newsweek's Michael Hirsh on McCain's Florida victory:

The astonishing turnaround in McCain's fortunes arose from several factors: Giuliani's disastrous strategy of skipping the early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina; lingering GOP doubts about Romney's electability stemming from his Mormon faith, as well as tepid support from the Republican base over his squishy stance on social issues; and a certain degree of vindication for McCain's early staunch support of Bush's troop surge in Iraq.

McCain focused heavily on areas in the state where his message on national security would play well, like Tampa and the Panhandle-home to thousands of military vets and their families. Even in spite of polls showing that the economy was the biggest issue looming in the state, McCain did little to shake up his stump speech-hitting hard on the war, counterterrorism, and the need to keep America safe. Heading into the final weekend, McCain went on the attack, hitting Romney for his lukewarm support of the surge and calling him a flip-flopper. "He is consistent," McCain sneered to reporters during a campaign stop in Jacksonville on Monday. "He has consistently taken both sides of every major issue. He has consistently flip-flipped on every major issue."

Late last week, McCain and his aides began to lean hard on two big-time Florida lawmakers who had yet to offer endorsements in the race: Sen. Mel Martinez and Gov. Charlie Crist, both longtime allies of McCain. Both had initially said they would stay neutral in the race, but with Romney appearing to gain momentum in the polls, McCain privately pleaded with the two to reconsider. Martinez went first, announcing his support for McCain on Friday afternoon. On Saturday night, Crist, one of the most popular Republicans in Florida, followed, in what was regarded as the nail in Giuliani's coffin.

Read the rest here. 
 

With 54 percent of precincts reporting, McCain leads Romney 36 to 31 percent--which is good enough for the win, according to the networks. Here's what I wrote earlier on McCain after Florida:

If McCain finishes first, it will prove that he doesn't need Independents to win, providing a powerful rebuttal to Romney's charge that McCain isn't a "real Republican"; unlike New Hampshire and South Carolina, only the party faithful can participate in the Florida primary. It'll be hard for Romney to spin even a close second; Florida is winner-take-all, and, as Mitt has said, "I'm not looking for gold stars on my forehead like I'm in first grade. I'm looking to rack up the delegates I need to win the nomination." A wave of positive headlines--after all, McCain once called the press his "base," and pundits are salivating at the prospect of crowning someone the frontrunner--will likely boost his (already strong) poll numbers in California and the delegate-rich northeast (expect him to focus on those two areas in the run-up to Super Tuesday). Voters initially attracted to Giuliani's macho rhetoric will continue to flock to McCain, and Huckabee will keep his fervent social conservative constituency just out of Romney's reach for as long as possible. Mac will be hard to beat. 

More to come.

I just landed at Dallas-Fort Worth airport for a brief layover before flying out to Los Angeles for this week's final pre-Feb. 5 debates. A few quick thoughts before "wheels up":

On Ron Paul: After posting items earlier today on what's next for Huckabee, Giuliani, Romney and McCain after Florida, I was bombarded with emails (some of them angry) asking why I was ignoring Ron Paul. "Why, sir, no mention of Ron Paul?" wrote "Mike C." "He is in better shape than some of the others, yet your blog and 99% of all the other MSM outlets omit him. Is the MSM scared of this guy? Are you scared of him?" To answer Mike: I'm not a particularly courageous guy, but, no, I'm not scared of Ron Paul. In fact, I think he's one of the most interesting things to happen to American politics in a long time. I even wrote an article about it. And you're right, Mike--the good doctor is doing better than, say, Giuliani. But here's the rub: Florida isn't going to change his candidacy. Paul's final polling average was 3.6 percent--nearly 10 points less than Huckabee, the next closest contender. Unless there's a larger disparity tonight than in previous primaries between that number and the result, Paul won't upend expectations and end the day either better or worse off than he started it. So no real news to report--unlike Giuliani, who's probably toast. That said, he's got a ton of money and passionate support, and he'll continue campaigning for as long as those two things hold out. But sorry, guys. I don't think Ron Paul will win the Republican nomination. The question is, will he continue as an independent even after the GOP chooses its candidate?

On Hillary Clinton: Hillary Clinton just won the Democratic primary in Florida. By more than 20 points. So why no coverage on Stumper? Because it doesn't count. Last year, when Florida threatened to move its primary before Feb. 5, the national party warned that it would strip the state of its delegates if it decided to go through with the plan. Florida ignored the warning, the party kept its promise and the leading Dems--Clinton, Obama and Edwards--agreed not to campaign there. But after Clinton lost South Carolina--and found herself in desperate need of momentum--she suddenly started saying that Florida should matter. Conveniently, she led in polls there by 20 points--largely as result of her name recognition and the fact that her rivals had never set foot in the state to stump or organize. Now she's on CNN claiming that Floridians' "voices will be heard." Baloney. The state--not Obama--decided to disenfranchise the locals. Clinton's charade is like, say, Michael Jordan winning MVP during a season when the entire league's on strike. No one was playing, and it's condescending to think that voters outside of Florida will see the balloons and banners and assume that she actually beat someone. As Obama spokesman put it in an email titled "Breaking...": "Obama and Clinton tie for delegates in Florida.  0 for Obama, 0 for Clinton."

On Rudy: Mark Halperin at Time's The Page is reporting that "sources expect Giuliani to endorse McCain as early as Wednesday." What did I tell you?

On Tonight: I'm about to take off for La-La Land, but my colleagues Suzanne Smalley, Sarah Elkins and Holly Bailey should be filing dispatches from the Republican "victory" parties. Only one will earn the name. Stay tuned.

Contributed by Catharine Skipp and Arian Campo-Flores

Charlie Crist, Florida’s Republican governor, has been all over the news lately as a result of his endorsement of Sen. John McCain. But his popular predecessor, Jeb Bush, has been incognito. What gives? “I have friends and supporters working in all of the campaigns,” Jeb wrote in an e-mail response to questions from NEWSWEEK. “I told them all I would stay out of the race. I am proud of their efforts and those of their candidates, all of whom are fine men.” One of Jeb’s top fundraisers, Mark Guzzetta, who’s now national finance chairman for former Gov. Mitt Romney, says he had breakfast with Jeb last week. “The current political stuff was not on the forefront” of his concerns, says Guzzetta.

Like Guzzetta, numerous other Jeb advisers and fundraisers migrated to Romney’s campaign early on. Among them: former chief of staff Sally Bradshaw, former Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings, former state GOP chairman Al Cardenas and former state House speaker Allan Bense. “It gave sort of an implied blessing” to Romney, says one Tallahassee-based Republican strategist. Both Bradshaw and Guzzetta say they joined the Romney camp with Jeb’s approval. Yet Jeb hasn’t publicly said anything that could be interpreted as an endorsement of the former Massachusetts governor. Nor, it seems, is he doing much behind the scenes to help sway the Sunshine State’s primary. He did, however, chime in after Crist’s endorsement of McCain, in a way that some interpreted as a subtle rebuke to Crist. “I respect the governor’s decision, but Republican voters will determine who they want among very fine candidates,” he wrote in an e-mail to the Associated Press.

And then there were two.

If you're a Floridian sick of the fluidity and uncertainty of this year's Republican race, vote for McCain. Notched alongside New Hampshire and South Carolina on his belt, a Florida win would cement McCain's frontrunner status once and for all and catapult him into the GOP's 21 Super Tuesday contests--the biggest of which, like California and New York, he's already winning by sizable margins--with nearly unstoppable momentum. But if you prefer to prolong the indecision, pull the lever for Romney. Giving the former Massachusetts governor his first major win--Wyoming and Nevada were uncontested; Michigan was his home state--would put him on equal footing with the gentleman from Arizona and position Feb. 5 to be the single most unpredictable day in a primary season that's seen no shortage of unpredictability.

Today, McCain is hoping to seal the deal; Romney, to stay alive. With nearly every one the 25 polls taken since Jan. 19 showing a dead-heat, this week's bitter backbiting left no doubt about how high the stakes are for each campaign. The race started substantively enough. Romney pitched himself, per usual, as the man ready to repair a wobbling economy; McCain stuck to his pro-surge, national-security credentials and hoped the voters would choose character over pocketbook concerns (a call echoed by key endorsers Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez). But last weekend, things got nasty. McCain (erroneously) accused Romney of supporting a "secret timetable" for withdrawal from Iraq; both sides dropped the dreaded "L-word." As the clock ticked down yesterday, the vitriol only increased, with McCain saying that Romney's campaign is based on 'the wholesale deception of voters," and Romney responding that McCain will "say anything to get elected." Meanwhile, vicious robocalls continued to interrupt dinners statewide. An elderly Romney supporter told me yesterday that a caller--probably a push-poll "interviewer"--had implied (falsely) that Romney favored abortion and opening the borders. "I said, 'I don't like these questions," she recalled. "And then he said, 'Neither do I, ma'am.' Can you believe that!"

With Floridians eager for the mudslingers to move on, it's still unclear what happens next. If McCain finishes first, it will prove that he doesn't need Independents to win, providing a powerful rebuttal to Romney's charge that McCain isn't a "real Republican"; unlike New Hampshire and South Carolina, only the party faithful can participate in the Florida primary. It'll be hard for Romney to spin even a close second; Florida is winner-take-all, and, as Mitt has said, "I'm not looking for gold stars on my forehead like I'm in first grade. I'm looking to rack up the delegates I need to win the nomination." A wave of positive headlines--after all, McCain once called the press his "base," and pundits are salivating at the prospect of crowning someone the frontrunner--will likely boost his (already strong) poll numbers in California and the delegate-rich northeast (expect him to focus on those two areas in the run-up to Super Tuesday). Voters initially attracted to Giuliani's macho rhetoric will continue to flock to McCain, and Huckabee will keep his fervent social conservative constituency just out of Romney's reach for as long as possible. Mac will be hard to beat.

And if Romney wins? Who the heck knows. It seems safe to say that Mitt will get a boost--how big will depend on his margin--and I expect that the race would then be neck-and-neck until the returns come in next Tuesday. But that's just a guess. Frankly, hacks like me might have to give the predictions a rest until (at least) Feb. 6. 

Either way, the Republican race won't end tonight. A Romney-McCain title bout on Super Tuesday will polarize the party, and there are enough rabid anti-McCain conservatives out there to fuel the MittMobile for the foreseeable future. Plus, Romney's got far more cash in his war chest than McCain--no small advantage now that air time matters more than face time.

For the moment, at least, neither campaign is planning much beyond tomorrow's debate at the Reagan Library in California. It's a small acknowledgment of an obvious truth: after tonight, everything will change. Until then, the only thing to do is cross those fingers and wait.

Final Pre-Primary Polling Average: Fourth Place, 12.9 percent (1.8 behind Giuliani, 17.2 behind Romney, 17.8 behind McCain)
Current National Polling Average: Third Place, 18.8 percent (1.5 behind Romney, 7.5 behind McCain)

Mike Huckabee won't win Florida. He won't finish second. But the difference between third and fourth could make a huge impact heading into Super Tuesday.

Here's why. South Carolina was Huckabee's firewall state. After a stunning insurgent victory in Iowa, the hope was that he'd sweep the First in the South primary, finally fill his war chest,  fly into Florida with enough steam to win and wake up on Feb. 5 as the frontrunner. But losing to McCain in the Palmetto State stalled Huck's already paltry fundraising efforts, and he arrived here last week without enough money to compete in the Sunshine State's seemingly endless (and expensive) media markets. Since then, he's largely ceded Florida to his rivals, scheduling no more than one or two in-state appearances per day.

Which means that expectations are low. If Huckabee places fourth, it'll be difficult to claim any momentum heading into Super Tuesday, and his conservative supporters may coalesce around the more viable Romney. (Not that he'd drop out; advisors have downplayed today's vote, saying, "A close fourth [place] will be fine.") But if the former Arkansas governor comes from behind to defeat Giuliani, who has spent 58 days in Florida while staking his entire campaign on the state, he could get a boost in friendly Feb. 5 contests like Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia and, of course, Arkansas, which represent more than 25% of the delegates needed for the Republican nomination. Huckabee, in fact, has spent the last week jetting between Florida and the Deep South in an effort to shore up support. A bronze won't be enough to propel him to the nomination, but at this point every strong showing--especially among evangelicals still wary of frontrunners Romney and McCain--makes him a more attractive pick for vice president.

At least, that is, for McCain. When Romney accused the Arizona senator of "dishonesty" Saturday, Huckabee rushed to his defense. "Dishonest? I’ve never seen John McCain say something that is just blatantly untrue,” Huckabee said. "We have a civil approach to presidential process. Neither of us has sought the office by cracking the kneecaps of the other."

Hmm. I wonder whom he's rooting for tonight.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.--Another day, another completely unpredictable presidential contest.

Two weeks ago, it looked like the Florida primary would be a four man free-for-all: Mitt Romney vs. John McCain vs. Rudy Giuliani vs. Mike Huckabee. Since then, the field has narrowed, and as the voters of Florida finally head to the polls today, it appears they'll choose either Romney, the economic Mr. Fix-It, or McCain, the national security flyboy. That said, no one has any idea which of the two they'll choose; the latest surveys show the frontrunners neck-and-neck at about 30 percent. The stakes couldn't be higher--whomever caps the bitter Sunshine State battle with a win will ride into Super Tuesday with the last, precious piece of momentum, and in such a fractured, overdrawn field, the Big Mo could make all the difference. With the trail largely deserted, I'll spend the day posting short analyses of what's next for Romney, McCain, Giuliani and Huckabee.

Stayed tuned, and thanks for reading,
Andrew
 

JACKSONVILLE, Fla.—Mitt Romney may say he likes "change," but he's basically stuck to the same entrance song since launching his campaign about a year ago: Elvis Presley's "A Little Less Conversation," whose chorus ("A little less conversation, a little more action") is meant, I suppose, to evoke the former Massachusetts governor's optimistic Mr. Fix-It attitude—and not the impatience with foreplay that so vexed the King.

But tonight in an(other) airplane hangar, this one here in Jacksonville, a new cut showed up on the playlist—the Temptations classic "Ain't Too Proud Too Beg." I can't imagine that it was particularly welcome—assuming anyone but me noticed. On "Beg," you'll recall, singer David Ruffin spends 2:35 professing his willingness to do anything he can—"sleep(ing) on your doorstep," com(ing) and plead(ing) to you, baby" and, of course, "beg(ging)"—to "keep you from walking away." Not exactly the best theme song for a pol trying to shake his image as a panderer unashamed to say anything for a vote.

When asked, campaign aides claimed they had nothing to do with the evening's musical accompaniment, which also included the tender Tom Petty ballad "Wildflowers." (A point in their favor.) But the local A/V guys begged to differ, arguing that they simply played the CD they were given. The truth is still, as they say, out there. But when Ruffin's rasp faded, a familiar twang rang out through the room. The next track: "Walk the Line," Johnny Cash's deathless rockabilly ode... to the virtues of staying steadfast and true.

Talk about changing your tune.
 

"I was like, 'Dude, Rudy Giuliani at Ron Jon's, you know?" he told me afterwards. "What's the connection there?"

Not much, it turns out. Unlike the day's earlier events--synagogue, pizza parlor, Italian-American club--the stop at Ron Jon was less a targeted appeal to one of Rudy's natural constituencies than, well, a whim. According to the Ron Jon manager responsible for arranging the appearance, Giuliani spotted the Ron Jon billboards last time he was cruising the western coast of Florida and was "intrigued." And while Rudy might be the last person in the world I can imagine noseriding a Yater 'Spoon' down the face of a glassy four-footer, Ron Jon was happy to have him. "All these people and newspapers guys in the store?" the manager said. "No brainer." He was quick to add that Ron Jon does not endorse any candidate.

Thankfully, Rudy did not utter the word "cowabunga," sticking instead to, as one supporter put it, "the usual: defeating the terrorists, winning the war, cutting taxes." He not exactly the windiest candidate--at 15 minutes flat, the Ron Jon remarks set the day's speed record--or the loosest. Neil Orstman, a 65-year-old New Yorker in town on a camping trip, waited for a "lull in the patter" to ask why the Big Apple is "still a sanctuary city." Giuliani didn't blink--or respond. "It's not like I was a supporter anyway," said a peeved Orstman.

Harris, though, begged to differ. "Rudy's a pretty smooth cat," he said. "I like him. While McCain and Romney are going at it, he's sitting back, chilling. I bet he'll get a boost at the end." As a show of solidarity--or perhaps pure pranksterism--Harris managed to sneak around the back of the bus and slap a Ron Jon sticker on its bumper. He did, however, have one complaint. When I told him that I spent my childhood summers a few blocks from the original Ron Jon on Long Beach Island, N.J.--I also happen to be a half-Jewish, half-Italian pizza aficionado who lives in Brooklyn, so you can see why I chose this particular day to roadtrip with Rudy--he laughed. "It feels like New Jersey Ron Jon's here tonight," he said. "Too damn cold. I think you guys brought the weather down with you." After spending a day in Hizzoner's "element," it seemed almost possible.

Or maybe not. As I was saying goodbye to Harris, a silver sports coupe pulled up to the curb. "Who's that?" asked a swarthy teenager in the passenger seat, pointing to Giuliani's bus.

"The mayor of New York," said Harris. He arched his eyebrows as if to say, Are you serious?

Apparently, the kid was serious.

"He was the mayor of New York," Harris repeated. No response. "And, um he's running for president?" Still nothing. "Sept. 11 and all?"

And then, at last, a flicker of recognition.

"You mean the bald guy?"

VERO BEACH, Fla.--I spotted the sign as I pulled up to the Italian-American Civic Association here in Vero Beach, stuck in the lawn right next to a RUDY placard: "PASTA DINNER SUNDAY" and then, in Magic Marker, "4:15-7:15." At first, I was confused. One of the other signs said the feast was set to start at 4:00 sharp. Then it hit me.

The kind men and women of the Civic Association had graciously delayed their dinner. For 15 whole minutes. For a potential president.

Trust me. For us Italian-Americans--"Romano," I'm told, isn't Scandinavian--15 minutes is an eternity when you're waiting for some spaghetti.

Good thing Giuliani was running right on schedule. At 3:00 on the dot, he pulled up in his "Florida is Giuliani Country" bus, the "Rudy" soundtrack blaring from the PA, and sprinted to the stage. With a "Tested. Ready. Now" banner behind him, Hizzoner shifted the spotlight from terrorism--this morning's obsession--to the economy, the top concern of the retirees in attendance. "I'm the only Republican who's done a turnaround of a major economy," he said. "I left New York City a much stronger place than what was handed to me. I can do the same thing for the country, with the same principles." Cue geriatric cheering, which was exceeded in volume only when Rudy promised to "fight hard to make sure your social security is secure." Go figure.

Three stops into my Roadtrip with Rudy, I have to wonder whether appealing to the constituencies that would back you no matter what--Jews, Italians, former New Yorkers, pizza lovers--is the best way to mount a Florida comeback. After the rally, I asked a wiry little fellow originally from Bensonhurst, Brooklyn if he was an Italian-American. "I'm Italian," he said. "Speak it, too." You a Giuliani supporter? "Oh yeah. Ever since he was mayor. Did a good job on... what you call it? 5-11?" 9/11? I ventured. "That's right. 9/11." It's obvious that Giuliani is spending the day playing to his strengths and hoping to lure as many of these core "no questions asked" supporters to the polls as possible. But there's a certain futility implied, as if he's tacitly conceding that he's lost the larger blocs--national-security Republicans, for example, who are flocking to McCain--and is now content to nibble around edges in the final hours before the primary.

Speaking of nibbling, Giuliani wrapped up his remarks a brief 25 minutes after arriving. An Italian-American himself, perhaps he sensed the oncoming meal--or smelled it, rather, as the aroma of tomato sauce wafted through the room. Either way, five minutes later, the buffet pans were out, the fixins bar was ready and the rows of chairs had been replaced by a banquet arrangement. Rudy's bus was still in the lot. "Wow, that was really fast," said one Giuliani staffer. There were already little cups of grated parmesan in the middle of each table. 

BOCA RATON, Fla.—Rudy Giuliani has seen better days.

Take, for example, Dec. 16, 2007, the day CNN and Gallup released a national poll showing Giuliani crushing his rivals for the Republican nomination by 11 points. Or, for that matter, any day before Dec. 16, 2007, when he led the field by as much as 24. In every single poll. Here in Florida, one need only look to Jan. 7—a mere three weeks ago—to find Giuliani up by seven. If you scroll back to November, the margin expands to 21.

But alas. Today, Giuliani trails Mitt Romney and John McCain by seven in the Sunshine State and places a distant fourth in national surveys behind McCain, Romney and Huckabee. If the early-state voters are to be trusted, Giuliani is currently a less viable contender for the GOP nod than Ron Paul. America's Mayor finished sixth in Iowa, fourth in New Hampshire and sixth again in South Carolina; Paul at least managed fifth-place finishes in the Hawkeye and Palmetto States.

It's not hard to see why. Despite what Michael Goodwin writes in today's New York Daily News—"RUDY GIULIANI COULDN'T OVERCOME HIS PRO-CHOICE STANCE"—it's pretty clear (to me, at least) that his downfall has less to do with departures from conservative orthodoxy (which were well-publicized by December, when he was still ahead) than a totally unfavorable primary schedule. Giuliani's strategists realized early on that a pugnacious, socially-liberal Italian-American couldn't compete in sweet, evangelical Iowa, so they retreated to anti-tax, northeastern New Hampshire, where they outspent and outadvertised everyone save Romney. But losing in Iowa made Rudy look like a loser, and so his Granite State poll numbers slipped, too. Looking ahead, the campaign saw South Carolina—no place for somewhat scandalized Yankee-—and Florida. They decided to stake it all on the delegate-rich land of snowbirds, immigrants, Jewish retirees and northeastern transplants. He'll finally be in his element, they thought.

But even though Giuliani hasn't campaigned anywhere else since the first week of January, Florida hasn't returned the favor. Thinking that we might not see much of Rudy after Tuesday's primary—Hizzoner himself has said it's a must-win at this point-—I've decided to spend the day "in his element" with him. Luckily, the campaign has scheduled a bus trip up the western coast of Florida that's almost cartoonishly Rudy. Honestly, for a fellow New Yorker, today's itinerary was just too good to resist: a morning stop at a Jewish synagogue in Boca Raton! Afternoon visits to a pizzeria in Port Saint Lucie and an Italian-American club in Vero Beach!  An evening rally at a New Jersey-based surf shop in Cocoa Beach! The decal on the side of Giuliani's bus says "Florida is Giuliani Country"—a fitting slogan considering that, while he may not win, at least he can get a decent slice while he's at it. 

I'll be posting short dispatches after each stop. Can you say roadtrip? It'll be just like we're back in the Big Apple.

From the AP: Barack Obama routed Hillary Rodham Clinton in the racially-charged South Carolina primary Saturday night, regaining campaign momentum in the prelude to a Feb. 5 coast-to-coast competition for more than 1,600 Democratic National Convention delegates.

UPDATE, 11:45 p.m: Just arrived in Boca Raton, Fla. (I'm down here to cover Tuesday's Republican primary). As you all know by now, Obama whooped, whipped and/or whumped Clinton in South Carolina, more than doubling the margin the polls predicted (11.8 percent) to win by 27 points. The other thing he doubled? Clinton's vote total. As top strategist David Axelrod put it, tonight was "a good, old-fashioned butt-kicking." Earlier I wrote that Obama, who had long led in the polls, faced impossible odds in the expectations game: "If the Illinois Democrat hits that dozen-digit mark, it's what everyone was anticipating--i.e., no big deal. If he surpasses it, we'll all say 'good for him.'" Well, guess what? He ran the table. With shocked pundits now rhapsodizing over the size of Obama's victory, he'll certainly get better headlines than expected. Will it be enough to overcome the chatter about racial polarization and bloc-voting among blacks, who represented 55 percent of the electorate and chose Obama over Clinton 81 percent to 17 percent? Will it quiet doubts about whether the Illinois senator can woo whites (24 percent to Clinton's 36 and Edwards' 39)? I'll give the predictions a rest for now. We'll find out soon enough.

UPDATE, 12:30 p.m.: In case there was any doubt about how the Clintons would spin Obama's victory (via the Washington Post):

On Saturday, as Sen. Barack Obama was sweeping up the South Carolina primary, former Pres. Bill Clinton was busy downplaying the significance of Obama's impending win, casting it as a function of the state's demographics and the Illinois senator's heavy African American support. "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in '84 and '88," Clinton said at a rally in Columbia. "Jackson ran a good campaign. And Obama ran a good campaign here."

Ron Fournier says that they're running (and winning) "a larger campaign to polarize voters around race and marginalize Obama (in the insidious words of one of her top advisers) as 'The Black Candidate.'" That sure looks true tonight.

Will it backfire? The comments are all yours.