David Ansen does an excellent job of predicting all the major categories, so I'm just going to stick to the major-major ones. Here's what I think will happen.
Best picture: Really, is there any other movie that can upset "No Country For Old Men"? Not "Atonement," which I dubbed early as the Hillary Clinton of the campaign. (Sorry Hillary, it was originally meant as a compliment.) Not "There Will Be Blood," which is too long and difficult to win. I don't see enough people voting for "Michael Clayton." "Juno" will probably be the runner up. But if "Little Miss Sunshine" couldn't pull off a victory, it won't either. The winner: "No Country For Old Men."
Best director: The Coens will take it. Julian Schnabel ("The Diving Bell and the Butterfly") and PT Anderson ("There Will Be Blood") will split the votes for second and third place.
Best actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for "There Will Be Blood." Even George Clooney said he should win.
Best actress: Will there be a surprise winner? If Ruby Dee wins best supporting actress, as expected, I think there might be. Marion Cotillard gives the best performance in "La Vie En Rose," but I think the fact that the movie is all in French will hurt her. And if it does, how could voters refuse Ellen Page? She's the heart of the movie, and if Christie and Cotillard split the vote, she'll benefit from it. I'm tempted to pick her. I. ALMOST. DID. But then again, I don't think Dee will win, so maybe best supporting actress will be the surprise of the night and this category will turn out as expected. The most likely scenario: Cotillard and Page, both newcomers, split the "youth vote," and Christie ekes out a win. My prediction: Christie for "Away From Her."
Best supporting actor: Javier Bardem for "No Country for Old Men." It's a sure thing, I promise.
Best supporting actress: The most difficult category of the night--the early frontrunners were Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone") and Cate Blanchett ("I'm Not There"). Blanchett's already won, so I think that will hurt her. Then there was the late emergence of Ruby Dee, with her surprise SAG win. But does sentimentality really matter that much in the supporting categories--lead, yes, but remember how Gloria Stuart went home empty-handed for "Titanic?" I think Saoirse Ronan is out of the running. And Tilda Swinton, as wonderful as she is in "Michael Clayton," didn't steal the movie. (It was Clooney's.) So I'm going with the early favorite, and predicting Amy Ryan.
Best original screenplay: "Juno."
Adapted screenplay: "No Country For Old Men."
