"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" is the best movie I've seen (so far) this year. I just came back from the premiere at New York's Ziegfeld theater, and there wasn't a dry eye in the house. It's the true story of Jean-Dominique Bauby, the Elle editor who was left paralyzed after a stroke, and yet he devises a system to communicate by blinking his one good eye. Although it sounds grim, it's also uplifting--in a way that the Academy won't be able to resist, even if it's in French (and not eligible for best foreign film, because France submitted "Persepolis" instead). Actually, I think "Diving Bell" will be this year's "Letters From Iwo Jima," the movie that took everyone by surprise last year, only with more nominations.

Let me count the ways. Best picture, for sure. Best actor, probably, for Mathieu Amalric. Best supporting actor, maybe, for Max von Sydow. Best screenplay, definitely, for Ronald Harwood who adapts an unadaptable book. And best director, hopefully, for Julian Schnabel. Throw in a cinematography nomination, and that's six categories. I'm right about this, I promise.

The GoldDigger is taking a moment to reflect. I spent Sunday watching three films--"Zodiac," "American Gangster" and "Year of the Dog." Two of them were entertaining enough. The third features Molly Shannon talking to dogs. (But to be fair, it's a Mike White movie and an odd meditation on loneliness, sort of a bookend to "Lars and the Real Girl.") All this got me thinking about best picture, a race in which everyone is throwing their hands up in the air about this year.

Except, not really.

There are two locks so far. "Atonement" and "No Country for Old Men," which opened to an impressive $42,928 per screen average ($1.2 million) this weekend. If nothing else remarkable comes along, it could be a rematch of 1999 when "Shakespeare in Love" fought off "Saving Private Ryan." This year, I think the edge is in the Coen brother's corner. "No Country" is violent, yes, but not in a way that will alienate female voters. It's as adrenaline packed as last year's winner, "The Departed," with a more literary back story.

Do not adjust your screens. That's the food plate from last night's New York premiere of "No Country For Old Men." This blog is becoming so schizophrenic (sorry), I thought I'd try to become the Zagat (eew) of the awards-going crowd, too. But that was until I had to photograph my dish in a crowded room of Hollywood's best, and it took nine flashes from my blackberry to produce the Ansel Adams before you. Hmm. Maybe this will be a one-time shtick. The food is (from top right corner, counterclockwise): salty red meat, yellow vegetable, one shrimp, more yellow food, chicken and a bread roll. It gets a C+. 

What about the movie? Didn't you hear? It's terrific. Javier Bardem steals the picture. I can't help but wonder, though, why he's not being campaigned in the lead acting category. "He's going to win best supporting actor," a movie insider explained. Right. But he'd probably win best actor, too. Javier was there at the screening, with a bit of scruff that made him look more like Clive Owen than a sociopathic killer. Stars who go ugly always look extra primped on the red carpet--and why shouldn't they? It's a lesson from the America Ferrera School of Dude, I'm Not Really Ugly Like Ugly Betty! I also saw Josh Brolin and Frances McDormand in front of the popcorn stand. No, she's not in the movie. She's just a Coen groupie, like the rest of us.

Entertainment Weekly has a photo gallery of Oscar frontrunners. The magazine's Oscar pundit Dave Karger thinks "American Gangster" and "Charlie Wilson's War" (which no one has seen) are both good bets for best picture. I still don't know about "Gangster." I went to "Lars and the Real Girl" this weekend instead. (I loved it.) In the best actress category, he thinks Cate Blanchett will be crowned with a nomination for "Elizabeth: The Golden Age." I'm not so sure. The movie tanked at the box office and one Blanchett nod (in the supporting category for "I'm Not There") should be enough.

I haven't seen "American Gangster" yet—the trailer looks kind of bleh. But Lou Lumenick's review in the New York Post is full of big blurbage. He compares "American Gangster" to "The Godfather" and "Scarface." He says Denzel Washington gives his best performance yet. (Yet?! Really???) He ends with big Oscar talk: "... one of the year's best movies—and surely a major Oscar contender."

Hm. Is this is like the time Roger Ebert called "The Cell" one of the best movies of the year? Wait. Maybe not. The rest of the nation's critics mostly love it, too. Peter Travers of Rolling Stone calls it a "major awards contender," though it's "long," "overstuffed" and "limited" (thanks, Peter). Joe Morgenstern of the WSJ is also reminded of "The Godfather." Manohla Dargis of the NYTimes seems mixed in her lead, though the rest of the review sort of collapses into a critique of simple hair-braiding.

What does this all mean?! I guess it's in the running for best picture, and I'm buying a ticket to see it this weekend.

The critics have spoken and they love "Before The Devil Knows You're Dead," which opens today in limited release. The soundbites: 

Ben Affleck's directorial debut "Gone Baby Gone" is full of many things--good performances, suspense, Boston accents. But a screening I attended last night was not full of people. In its first four days, the film has only grossed $6.5 million at the box office, better than "Rendition" but nowhere near "Michael Clayton" or that vampire movie. Casey is good, though the acting category is so crowded this year, watch for him to be rewarded for both performances with a best supporting nod for "The Assassination of Jesse James." Amy Ryan might slip in for best supporting actress.

This just in ... Ang Lee's new movie "Lust, Caution" has been banned from the Oscars!?! Actually, it's just not eligible for Best Foreign Film, because too few of its crew is from Taiwan. If you're confused, you're not alone—the foreign press is wrongly reporting that the movie can't compete at all. (It's still eligible in other categories.) The Academy's process for nominating Best Foreign Film is so murky, the GoldDigger can't explain it to you here. But read this David Ansen article, with reporting from yours truly, about why some of the greatest foreign films are never nominated.

...

The GoldDigger: I read Annie Proulx is working on a "Brokeback Mountain" sequel.

Heath Ledger: Oh my god, that's hilarious.

Would you do a "Brokeback Mountain" sequel?

I don't think anyone would do the "Brokeback Mountain" sequel. I don't think there should be a sequel.

Jake could come back from the dead.

Or maybe he really didn't die.

That pretty much settles the debate, don't you think? Ledger then went on to tackle another timeless question. How do you pronounce the GoldDigger's real name? "I was thinking Ramen Noodles," he said. "But I didn't make that joke purposefully, because I figured you would have heard that a million times." In case you were wondering: Yes. We have.

Opening in select theaters today is the Oscar-bait movie "Reservation Road." It stars perennial nominees Joaquin Phoenix and Jennifer Connelly, and it's directed by Terry George ("Hotel Rwanda"). The GoldDigger did well in math all the way up to linear algebra, so he likes formulas. The movie's "In the Bedroom" (dead kid, grieving parents) times "House of Sand and Fog" (strangers in the dark, exchanging glances) but it equals a big muddle of melodrama. The GoldDigger thinks it's out of the game and the critics agree. As they say on a certain dating show, "Next."